Distribution of Coverage

On July 12, 2007 the McCain campaign announced the resignations of campaign manager Terry Nelson and strategist John Weaver. These two major resignations followed earlier news of staff layoffs and missed fundraising goals. For our analysis, we examined coverage from July 12th through July 17th in nine major media outlets. Despite the upheavals in the campaign of the leading GOP candidate at the time, USA Today, Fox News “Special Report with Brit Hume” and NBC “Nightly News” devoted only one story apiece to the events during those six days.

The problems of the McCain campaign made the biggest news in the Washington Post and Wall Street Journal. The Post ran five stories. The Wall Street Journal printed five pieces including the only opinion piece we found on the situation. The New York Times ran four stories, while CNN’s “Lou Dobbs Tonight” aired three stories. ABC “World News Tonight” and CBS “Evening News” aired two stories apiece.

Assessing the Situation

In order to understand how the problems in the McCain campaign were presented in the media we examined every sentence in a story for any opinions on the causes of the campaign crisis. The positive or negative nature of each opinion as well as the cited cause was recorded for this analysis.

When it came to assessing the causes of Senator McCain’s campaign problems, there was wide agreement on three key elements: Lackluster fundraising, Senator McCain’s stand on immigration reform and his stand on the Iraq war.

Poor fundraising performance during the first two quarters of the year was cited 37 times as the cause for many of the campaign’s problems. Senator McCain’s stand on immigration reform was mentioned 22 times. His unsuccessful backing of wide-ranging immigration reform was often seen as alienating Republican and conservative voters. Often in the same breath, stories cited the Senator’s tough stance on the Iraq war (19) as driving away moderates and independents. Rounding out the top five problems were discussions of organizational infighting (16) and profligate spending by the campaign (12) even as fundraising shortfalls became obvious. No other cause broke into the double digits.

While these three causes were the most common across the board there were differences between outlets. Inadequate fundraising was the leading cause for the New York Times (5 mentions), Washington Post (13 mentions), ABC “World News Tonight” (3 mentions) and CBS “Evening News” (6 mentions).

The Wall Street Journal news stories cited organizational infighting more often than inadequate fundraising (6 vs. 3 mentions). The single opinion piece in the Journal was a Potomac Watch column that took a certain amount of glee in pointing out how the McCain-Feingold campaign finance reform now hurt Senator McCain. The column noted that not only did the law restrict his fundraising options when he most needed to find new money, the law had also made enemies of many key groups in the Republican base such as the National Rifle Association and National Right to Life Committee. This single column had 14 opinions linking McCain-Feingold to the current campaign crisis.

In keeping with the overall tone of the show, CNN’s “Lou Dobbs Tonight” cited Senator McCain’s stand on immigration reform most often (8 mentions). The immigration issue was also the number one cause for USA Today (3 mentions). For the other outlets there was no clear number one cause.

Given the nature of events, there was little the McCain campaign could do to refute the assessments people were making of the campaign. As a result, coverage in all of the outlets was negative but some outlets presented more criticism than others.

Inadequate fundraising examples:

• And money woes have transformed Mr. McCain from a contender to a long shot. (Michael Cooper reporting in New York Times 7/16/07)
• Senator John McCain is also having trouble fund-raising, and as Joie Chen reports his campaign is running dangerously low on cash. (Anthony Mason, CBS “Evening News” 7/14/07)
• Well, I mean, that's the problem. He had a hard time raising money in the first quarter, a harder time raising money in the second quarter, when immigration really came to a head. The question now is can he attract enough money? (Candy Crowley reporting on CNN 7/13/07)

Stand on Immigration Examples:

• Immigration reform and the war in Iraq are part of the reasons Senator John McCain's presidential campaign seems on the verge of collapse. (Kitty Pilgrim, CNN “Lou Dobbs Tonight” 7/13/07)
• John Berman: “And you're supporting him?” Concord, NH Resident: “Not this time, because of the immigration. He supported the immigration and the amnesty bill.” (ABC 7/13/07)

Stand on Iraq Examples:

• "I really respect him, but that doesn't mean I agree with him on everything," especially the war in Iraq, she says as she waits for McCain to arrive. "I want to bring our troops home.” (Faye Bopp – N.H. voter, USA Today 7/16/07)
• Lorenzo Morris, Political Science Department Chair., Howard University: “The ideological positions, his support for the war, the support for immigration reform, as well as the failure to have new finance initiatives, leaves him stuck in 2000 history.” (CNN 7/17/07)

Looking to the Future

For their part, Senator McCain and his campaign remained optimistic about the future. As the Senator put it, “The reason why I'm gonna win the nomination to the presidency is because I'm going to go directly back to the people of this state who supported me in 2000, and I'm confident will do so again.” (ABC 7/13/07). Despite their own bell ringing, media reports gave the McCain campaign roughly 50-50 odds (54% positive vs. 46% negative). Most reporters and other unaffiliated observers doubted the ability of the McCain campaign to recover from such significant problems.

The more conservative outlets were among the gloomiest on the future of the McCain campaign.

Views on the Future Examples:

• Senator McCain: “But I can out campaign these guys, and I will, and I can, and we're going to be doing just fine both here and Iowa and in South Carolina, and I have every confidence.'' (New York Times 7/15/07)
• Charlie Cook, Cook Political Report: “This campaign is effectively over.” (NBC “Nightly News” 7/13/07)
• Democratic strategist James Carville says he is convinced that "McCain ain't going to make it to Iowa." (Wall Street Journal 7/14/07)
• But for Mr. McCain, dogged by his identification with the unpopular Iraq war and immigration issues, much of the optimism that once marked his -- and Mr. Reagan's -- style is gone, Republicans say. (Wall Street Journal 7/14/07)